Tuesday, June 30, 2015

Playing It Out...


Greece will miss a 1.6B Euro payment to the IMF at midnight tonight.

+ Tsipras is "daring" the EU to kick Greece out.

+ July 5 referendum.

= Uncertainty = Volatility:


and short-term technical damage has been done to the 
S&P 500:


  • A break of the short-term up-trend line will now force a test of buying support near the 200 day moving average at or about 2040-2060 and below that at previous support levels 1970-1980 and 1820.
  • At yesterday's close = down 3.6% from the highs.
  • Year to date = unchanged (approx.)
  • At 1970 (support) = approx. 8% correction from the highs.
the Euro:


After opening lower, the Euro reversed to close stronger, something that we had anticipated, as the Euro without Greece should be a stronger currency.

And as money moved away from riskier assets, high quality government bonds in the US, Canada, Germany and the UK rose and 10 year yields declined by .12-.14 %.

Meanwhile, bonds in Italy, Spain and Portugal fell and 10 year yields rose by .23-.33 %.

The balanced and diversified 60% equity / 40% fixed income portfolio remains positive (by approx. 1%) year to date.

We shall continue to monitor the events as they unfold, but for the time being, heightened levels of uncertainty will continue to drive volatility.

The best protection from volatility: Balance and Diversification


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