US Inflation Inches Up

Bank Of Canada Builds In 0.5% Additional US Growth

According to the US Bureau Of Labor Statistics, Total CPI was higher by 2.1%. Energy was the big gainer at 5.4%, followed by Medical Care and Shelter. Restaurants also added to the increase. The US Fed targets a level of 2% for the core PCE price index which will be announced on Jan. 27.

Closer to home, the Bank Of Canada left rates unchanged and issued its Monetary Policy Report and while stressing "undiminished" economic uncertainty ahead, they are building an additional 1/2% of US GDP growth into their projection allowing for some measure of increased US fiscal stimulus.

http://www.bankofcanada.ca/2017/01/opening-statement-180117/

However, the BOC feels that the impact on Canada will be small.

Furthermore, they acknowledge that higher bond yields in Canada on the back of higher US bond yields (see our themes for 2017) are generally "at odds with Canada's macroeconomic situation". 

As well, the stronger C$ is creating economic headwinds for Canada's export economy.

Finally, as I suggested in my Jan 9 blog, inflation remains well below the BOC targets, whereby they have no intention of raising rates in the near term. So all you floating/variable rate mortgage borrowers can breath easy, at least for a while. Canada's December inflation data is due on Friday, so stay tuned for an update.

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Scott

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