Ground Zero For The Global Economy

Massive uncertainty or somewhat less uncertainty is on the table today. From what I can gather, North Carolina is an important state which is too close to call and Florida also carries a big decision factor weighting. Trump needs them both.

There is also the outside chance of civil unrest if Trump loses but does not accept the outcome.

So the US economy, reliant on its citizens to consume, needs less uncertainty for them to do so. If they are not confident in the future, they will postpone their spending until they are. If businesses are not confident, they will not invest in growth.

Brexit taught us a few lessons about polling and odds-makers, there is no reason that the quiet majority could easily ask for change (despite the style of leadership on offer).

Health insurance premiums have jumped significantly for many under "Obamacare" and this in and of itself could prove to be problematic for Hillary. I have heard a good deal about this in my travels down here.

How goes the US economy will determine how risk will be perceived on a global scale. The greater the uncertainty, the less risk investors will be willing to take and markets, showing a spike in volatility over the last few days will certainly add to that volatility if risk is taken off of the table.

A global economy with fractured trade (if that should occur) will undo whatever positives globalization has brought and this will not create a good footing for longer term growth and investment.

Many have remarked upon how the lower pound has helped the UK economy post-Brexit, but this is merely short-term activity, the longer run outlook is grim.

So the American voters will decide today whether to embrace uncertainty, take a step backward and alter the current path or to keep working toward economic strength with a social conscience.

Whatever happens, it will not be pretty going forward (at least in the near term), although stock markets will likely breathe a sigh of relief (for the moment) if Hilary prevails. That plus a Republican congress would further the political gridlock and while still not positive for the economy, it would be the least disruptive for markets.

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scott@highrockcapital.ca

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