Employment Data Day: US and Canada

Many market participants (and central bankers) are looking to today's data for insight into the economic progress of both countries, although I will suggest caution in reading too much into one month's set of numbers as they are often subject to significant revisions.

Expected

In Canada:

• Unemployment rate = 6.9%
• Job growth = decline of 5,000

In the US:

• Nonfarm Payrolls = increase of 220,000
• Unemployment rate = 5.4%
• Average hourly earnings = increase of .2%

The importance of US economic growth going forward has taken on greater significance as BOC governor Poloz has stated that he is expecting US economic growth to pull the Canadian Economy along in the 2nd half of 2015.

As well, forecasters will be looking at what the data will mean to the US Federal Reserve as they ponder the next move for interest rates (at the moment an increase of 1/4% is widely expected at the September FOMC meeting).

One of the key data points will be the potential inflationary impact of employment costs (average hourly earnings).

Bond investors will be concerned with yields that do not give them enough protection over inflation and as can be seen from recent bond market volatility, a concern of the return of inflationary pressures is at the forefront.

Stay tuned.

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