And now... from the Bank of Canada:
Monetary Policy Report : April 2015
Key Takeaways:
- The effects of lower prices for oil and other commodities are working their way through the world economy, boosting overall global growth, but weakening growth prospects in some countries. All things considered, the Bank expects global economic growth to strengthen and average about 3 1/2 per cent over the 2015–17 period, in line with the January Monetary Policy Report.
- As the U.S. economy strengthens, the Federal Reserve is widely expected to start normalizing monetary policy later this year—in contrast to the ongoing easing in other advanced economies. The substantial strengthening of the U.S. dollar against most other currencies, notably the euro, the yen and the Canadian dollar, largely reflects such differences and, over time, will contribute to mitigating them by boosting net exports in the weaker economies.
And... In Canada:
- The decline in oil prices has had a greater impact in the short-term than was initially expected.
- Cdn Q1 GDP is expected to be flat (0% growth rate).
- As a result projected 2015 GDP growth has been revised down to 1.9% (from 2.1%).
- However, Q2 and Q3 growth rates are being revised upward ( Q2 from 1.5% to 1.8% and Q3 from 2.0% to 2.8%) as the oil price shock wears off and the lower $C impacts non-energy exports positively.
- Regionally, Alberta, Saskatchewan and Newfoundland/Labrador have been hardest hit (no surprise here).
- Elevated levels of Household Debt and the impact on incomes from commodity price declines will restrain household spending.
- Housing market conditions have diverged across regions and have slowed considerably on a national scale with the exception of Toronto and Vancouver.
- Inflation is expected to return to the 2% target by the end of 2016.
No change in current monetary policy and likely no change in future monetary policy for some time.
and the $C?
Is at the best levels since early January:
And the trip to Europe just got cheaper!!
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